This headline from CNN:
“Poll: No ‘bounce’ for Kerry so far”
“So Far” being the operative word. As though the convention bounce is going to happen in mid-August.
CNN new mission statement:
CNN is among the world’s leaders in wishful thinking. Our reporters work 24/7 to bring you our latest hopes and dreams disguised as news.
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If you read the article, a better headline might be “Bush up slightly after Democratic convention,” because that’s what their numbers say. I realize that the numbers are within the statistical margin of error, but the numbers shouldn’t fluctuate too much from poll to poll.
I expect that Bush will get little bounce out of his convention either. The electorate is extraordinarily polarized. I do expect the Republicans to whittle down the Democrats percentage as the media campaign begins and the liberal monopoly on the media is broken.
Eric,
I wouldn’t put too much emphasis on the Gallup poll if I were you. It’s results are, from a historical point of view, very odd, so it really needs confirmation from another major poll before trusting it is correct. Besides, according to John Hood at NRO, “Gallup has a history of wildly gyrating numbers on presidential races”.
To be fair, I think the “so far” bit is to allow for a fuller view of polls that haven’t yet concluded and/or to wait a few more days, say til Wednesday or Thursday, to give a definitive final judgment on whether Kerry got a boost or not from the convention.
That said, I think so far, so good.
The “so far” comment can be translated to “we’ll keep poling until we get the numbers we like”!
Personally, I think this is unusual and a pretty good sign.